OSINT Signal Forecast
Short-horizon (7/14/28-day) forecasts of the public GDELT media/event health signal, with calibrated uncertainty bands. This forecasts media attention, a proxy that can lead, lag, or diverge from actual disease activity — it is not a prediction of cases or spread. Reliability-capped: a media-tier (C) forecast is never shown as fully certain.
How to read these forecasts
The dashed line is the ensemble point forecast; the shaded bands are the 80% (darker) and 95% (lighter) prediction intervals. The solid line is recent observed signal.
Bands are conformal — their width comes from how wrong this model has actually been at each horizon in backtests, not from the model's own optimism. Until enough backtest history accrues, a series is flagged band uncalibrated.
Computing forecasts…
Loading disease forecasts…